After this primary Super Tuesday there are questions being raised as to the impact of the Tea Parties and disappointment among those who supported new faces that lost. Some new faces have won such as (Rep) Fiorina in California who will run against (Dem) Barbara Boxer, (Rep) Sharon Angle in Nevada who will run against (Dem) Harry Reid.
Trying to evaluate the impact of the power and strength of the Tea Party Movement based on the results of this Primary is as difficult as apparently plugging the oil leak in the Gulf. The pundits point to Arkansas and (Dem) Blanche Lincoln as a victory for the establishment candidate. It is interesting that Unions and ultra liberal groups such as (Moveon.org) spent millions of dollars against Lincoln supporting Bill Halter and failed to unseat her in the Primary run-off. Lincoln was forced as was a lot of Democrats running for re-election to move to the center and the early November polling has her losing to Republican John Boozman in the fall.
The Tea Party movement has been at the Political game for only a year at the grass roots level and yet candidates on both sides of the aisle are trying to either curry favor with it or taming their progressive rhetoric to a more centrist position on the issues.
There is political naiveté’s both on the part of Tea Party members and the political pundits trying to ascertain the movement’s impact. The idea that the movement can challenge all the incumbents and the big money like Whitman’s $80 Million dollar Governor’s seat campaign in California in an off year election is a David against Goliath reality. The pundits who then look at the score card and see that Tea Party endorsed candidates that lost must signal that the movement is not as effective as predicted are losing sight of the big picture.
Here is the truth in the tea leaves that everyone should understand;
1) In a short period of time candidates on both sides of the political aisle are speaking more conservative and the far left-wing liberal or progressive view is not a loud voice.
2) There have been upsets this Primary season against incumbents in which newcomers have won such as Utah (Bennett) and in Kentucky with (Rand Paul) and these gains are reflecting the mood of the country.
3) It is ridiculous to expect that Blue states (Traditional Democratic) are going to have the same amount of tea party power that Red states (Traditional Republican) have and yet there have been upsets in the traditional political voice in those States remember Scott Brown in Massachusetts.
4) The two party system has big money on both sides and it is naïve to think that money does not have any impact on elections it does, however even though that money is being spent, unlike before the Tea Party Movement, that money is slowly becoming less and less a difference maker.
5) The Tea Party Movement is not an organized monolithic Party that has used money and advertisement to endorse and campaign in one voice in the Primary elections for one candidate. To then look at a candidate that did have the endorsement of a Tea Party group that then lost and to read those tea leaves in the cup, as a loss of Tea Party momentum is a big mistake. We have just begun.
6) This is an off year election and many independent voters either could not participate without registering for a party or who do not participate in primary elections. These so termed “Swing Voters” do not show up in Primary elections.
7) Voter turnout in off year election is always low and there was little difference this year.
8) There are many voters out there that do not consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement and still believe that the movement is a radical group but when the questions posed by the pollsters about their feelings about the President, Congress and the direction of the Country are asked they respond in a unified voice. That voice whether they realize it or not is aligned with the Tea Party beliefs and not the Washington elite establishment.
9) Growing unknown candidates and having them become rising stars overnight is a hit and miss political game and reality. The Democrats and Republican Parties that have been in this game forever, can attest to that fact, while the grassroots Tea Party movement is a babe in the political woods. The fact that with virtually no money, disparate organizational cohesiveness and having to compete with the entrenched apathy of the disengaged American voter during an off year election the Tea Party movement has been phenomenally successfully in rallying the electorate and they have just begun.
10) Most importantly as the general election nears remember that the Tea Party success is to both remain an independent grassroots agitation to politics as usual and a growing voice of obstacle to the progressive (Liberal Democrats) trying to Socialize America. The real battle and results have yet to begin!
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